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Your predictions please – an open thread

OK, with less than 24 hours to go until polls open, let’s hear your predictions.

And let’s keep it actually interesting – include percentages, turnout rate, total number of votes – that kind of thing, not just rah-rahing for your candidate.

All races are open game.

With that, have at it.


About Jonathan Shorman

A journalism student at The University of Kansas and columnist for The University Daily Kansan.


12 thoughts on “Your predictions please – an open thread

  1. Senate: Moran by 7 (a new poll today says up 10)

    1st District: Mann by 2

    2nd District: Jenkins… by a lot

    3rd District: Yoder by 2 or 3

    4th District: Too close, My hope is Pompeo, but I am in the 3rd district so I can’t really say

    Posted by rockchalk128 | August 2, 2010, 11:28 am
  2. Oh and I think turnout is going to be higher than predicted. probably somewhere around 25-30%. I have seen a ton of precinct walkers for all of the campaigns, and so I think they are all working hard to get out the vote

    Posted by rockchalk128 | August 2, 2010, 12:02 pm
  3. I’d say voter turnout will be highest in the first district. Older, rural folks tend to vote more reliably than their urban counterparts. I’m thinking 35-40% at least. Statewide, I’ll guess between 20-25%.
    And as a result, higher turnout in the heavily Republican first district should help Moran. Someone else posted that on here at one point, and it makes sense.
    I think Tiahrt has momentum right now (I won’t talk about campaign tactics in this post), but I think Moran will win by somewhere between 5-10%. This is a much narrower margin than I would have predicted even just a month ago.

    Then there is the first district. This race is as unpredictable as it gets, in my opinion. I have my biases, but I think it will come down to Mann, Barnett and Huelskamp, with Wasinger in fourth and Cobb and Boldra with under 5% each.
    I’d personally be okay with Mann or Huelskamp, but I think the top two will be Mann and Barnett. I honestly cannot predict a winner.

    Why do I think that? To me, Huelskamp’s campaign seems to have stalled out and I don’t know why. Barnett has been attacking Huelskamp hard… really he’s just been outright lying about him, and Mann. To the uninformed voter, these lies can be affective, unfortunately. The mailers I’ve been getting have been downright despicable, with nary a mention of Barnett being behind them unless you look at the fine type – just mudslinging at the others. I also think that Huelskamp and Wasinger are the two more overt conservatives, so they may eat away at each other’s votes, which would hurt Huelskamp if he is one of the top three. (I just read the Wagle endorsement. I actually think that will definitely hurt Barnett.)

    Mann’s Salina location and Quinter/K-State history should help him over Barnett’s Emporia location and KC wife?

    The wild card is whether people decide to vote for their favorite or vote for their best option to win. Seeing as how this race is so close at the top, the voters could abandon their favorite if their favorite is down lower and throw their support for one of the contenders. I just don’t know, but I love paying attention.

    Overall, I hope people work to inform themselves rather than paying attention to mailers, polls, or idiot commenters like me on political blogs. 🙂

    Secretary of state – Kobach (Tea Party favorite)
    Attorney General – Schmidt (I love his candid Facebook posts)

    Posted by backroadsnewsroom | August 2, 2010, 2:00 pm
  4. US Senate Republican primary. Tiahrt is really moving up in the polls–lots of momentum. I predict he will win tomorrow by 3 points.

    Posted by bestamerica | August 2, 2010, 2:37 pm
  5. backroad – It will be 115 degree heat index in western Kansas tomorrow, and all across the state. The non-committed Jerry votes will stay home. Tiahrt has the momentum, Tiahrt’s voters are passionate and will get to the polls. Tiahrt wins by 2.

    Posted by rex1980 | August 2, 2010, 2:55 pm
  6. Moran by 8
    Mann by 1 in 1st
    Pompeo by 4 in 4th
    Yoder by 8 in 3rd
    Jenkins by a lot
    Kobach by 6-8
    Schmidt and Brownback by a lot
    Praeger by 20

    Posted by mcphersonbulldog | August 3, 2010, 12:57 am
  7. It’s going to hot all across the state, so weather will only play a factor among the frail elderly.

    The healthy elderly in the 1st, however, will still turn out big for the primary as they are very loyal to Moran. There’s only a few outliers for Tiahrt in SW Kansas who’ve hooked together a troika of Huelskamp, Kobach and Tiahrt.

    Districts 2 and 3 will be the key in the Senate race. I have no idea where that could go.

    Geography likely will trump ideology in the 1st House race, so it will also depend on regional turnout, which is never an automatic certainty. In many ways, it’s a pick’em.

    Let’s go with Moran by 5 (maybe less), Mann by 2, big money will lose as Schodorf wins by 1, Yoder by 6, Kobach by 7 to 9.

    Posted by larfromhays | August 3, 2010, 7:43 am
  8. Bestamerica and rex – Yes Tiahrt has momentum, I agree, but it wont be enough to overcome Moran’s 10 pt lead. And as far as the heat index goes, It will narrow the margin, maybe, but that is something that affects both sides. Although, I do agree that Tiahrt’s base is a little more fired up, so the lower the turnout, the better chance he has. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

    Posted by rockchalk128 | August 3, 2010, 7:59 am
  9. We should probably note that retirees are the type of people who move to Arizona during winter on purpose because they prefer heat. Besides, retirees also tend to be early birds, and it is downright pleasant out this morning so far.

    Posted by backroadsnewsroom | August 3, 2010, 8:08 am
  10. Unfortunately, I think Yoder will win the 3rd and then get slaughtered in the general as one scandal after another breaks loose. 4th District, I just hope it is not Jean Shodorf. 2nd District will be Jenkins and she’ll win in November. 1st District, I’m hoping for Tim and his people will be among the more passionate, but Mann has become the establishment choice and that will give him momentum. I’m not there on the ground so I’m missing a lot of the flyers, etc that have obviously been hurting Tim and as mentioned above, stalling out his campaign.

    As always in the primaries, much can be said for enthusiasm and that tends to serve candidates like Tim and Todd quite well (although, Jerry is well thought of in his District and so that may dull some of the impact of Todd’s supporters). Today is going to be a scorcher so we’ll see who does the best job of motivating their supporters to go out in the heat.

    Posted by altevogt | August 3, 2010, 1:58 pm
  11. I think the most interesting race of the day will be for SOS. Kobach has a lot of support, but, he’s also very controversial and I wonder how many people are going to get to the polls and decide they’d just as soon have the little bureaucratic gal in there who will just do the job without stirring the pot.

    On the Democrat side, my friend Chris Steineger is paying the price for being a little too honest, open-minded and visionary for his own good. He’ll get clobbered by Biggs. It won’t make any difference in the final outcome of who goes to Washington, but I think Lisa Johnston in the Senate race beats out Sen. Haley by a couple of points. Haley has all of the endorsements (as does Tiahrt) and so this will be an interesting test of backroad’s theory that endorsements don’t mean much (and it appears to be).

    Posted by altevogt | August 3, 2010, 2:10 pm

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