The Kansas City Star is reporting on a internal Tiahrt poll that shows him almost tied with Jerry Moran. This is interesting considering SurveyUSA is showing a 20 point lead for Moran in a poll almost as recent.
Let’s explore some options for a moment. One one hand, the SurveyUSA poll came just after Tiahrt was endorsed by Sarah Palin and Sean Hannity, so maybe that can account for some movement, Twenty points worth of movement is debatable though. Many feel that those likely to be influenced by a Palin or Hannity endorsement were probably already in the Tiahrt camp. Another, more likely, option is one being discussed by many observers – namely the SurveyUSA poll might have just missed a lot of Tiahrt supporters.
However, beyond all that, one has to wonder how an internal poll fond its way out into the press, and then how it ended up in an emailed fundraising appeal by Tiahrt campaign manager Chuck Knapp, quoted below.
I just learned that the Kansas City Star’s Prime Buzz has a story about a Tiahrt internal poll. Our campaign has a long history of refusing to comment on polls in the press. We will adhere to that policy regarding this story, but I can tell you we are pleased with our position in this race, and we look forward to a victory on August 3rd.
Internal polls are usually just that – internal. It showing up on the media’s radar, and then in a fundraising appeal just hours before the end of the fundraising quarter, seems a bit like a deliberate leak rather than “Oops, I left my confidential campaign files somewhere public.” These things usually aren’t accidents.