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Tiahrt commissioned poll shows tie

The Kansas City Star is reporting on a internal Tiahrt poll that shows him almost tied with Jerry Moran. This is interesting considering SurveyUSA is showing a 20 point lead for Moran in a poll almost as recent.

Let’s explore some options for a moment. One one hand, the SurveyUSA poll came just after Tiahrt was endorsed by Sarah Palin and Sean Hannity, so maybe that can account for some movement, Twenty points worth of movement is debatable though. Many feel that those likely to be influenced by a Palin or Hannity endorsement were probably already in the Tiahrt camp. ¬†Another, more likely, option is one being discussed by many observers – namely the SurveyUSA poll might have just missed a lot of Tiahrt supporters.

However, beyond all that, one has to wonder how an internal poll fond its way out into the press, and then how it ended up in an emailed fundraising appeal by Tiahrt campaign manager Chuck Knapp, quoted below.

I just learned that the Kansas City Star’s Prime Buzz has a story about a Tiahrt internal poll. Our campaign has a long history of refusing to comment on polls in the press. We will adhere to that policy regarding this story, but I can tell you we are pleased with our position in this race, and we look forward to a victory on August 3rd.

Internal polls are usually just that – internal. It showing up on the media’s radar, and then in a fundraising appeal just hours before the end of the fundraising quarter, seems a bit like a deliberate leak rather than “Oops, I left my confidential campaign files somewhere public.” These things usually aren’t accidents.

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Discussion

5 thoughts on “Tiahrt commissioned poll shows tie

  1. A Primary Lesson…Part 1

    This past Monday my wife had lunch with a former Congressman and spouse. During the luncheon, she lamented the Survey USA Poll that had just been released still showed a twenty point spread between the Kansas Senatorial Candidates (Mr. Moran with 53% and Mr. Tiahrt 33%).

    The former Congressman laughed and said don’t pay any attention to Survey USA or any of the other general polls. The Congressman went on to explain the vagaries of polling and the fact that in his last campaign Survey USA showed that he was up 20+ points over his opponent…and got beat!

    Mr. Tiahrt’s internal poll at this point in the race shows a virtual dead heat between the two candidates (give or take a point or two for margin of error). How can this be?

    First, refer to the archives article about Tiahrt winning the Straw Poll this past Saturday and my comment below the article. I remarked that Mr. Tiahrt’s message was resonating with the party workers and faithful; they were the ones who voted in the poll and who will turn out the vote in the Primary! Mr. Tiahrt won 73% of the Straw Vote – beating Mr. Moran like a red headed stepchild.

    Now we have the Tiahrt internal poll that proves that his message of No Taxes, Small Government, no coddling of Terrorists and the securing of our boarders is a stronger message than Mr. Moran’s warm and fuzzy flights back home to travel the Kansas highways. A strong Kansas oak versus a reed blowing in the wind.

    Reading the comment section of Prairie Politics a while back, I noticed, folks were saying that they had received calls from a Moran Campaign Polling Firm asking who would they vote for in the next Senatorial election. That was internal polling! What Mr. Moran has known for weeks, now revealed by Tiahrt’s poll, is that Mr. Tiahrt has been surging with the folks who actually vote in the primary. Those are concerned, informed Republicans who wish to select the best candidate they can for the general election.

    Remember, my friends a Primary is the process used by Republicans and Democrats to select their best candidate to run in the general election. Consequently, those who vote in a Primary are more passionate and informed that the general population who will vote later in the general election. What counts in a Primary are those passionate party faithful who turn out to vote rain or shine.

    That is why I predict Mr. Tiahrt will continue to surge and blow past Mr. Moran to win the Republican Party’s Nomination to run against the Democratic nominee in the November General Election.

    Posted by jdn1947 | July 1, 2010, 6:27 am
  2. A Primary Lesson…Part II

    My friends, Primary voting is a relatively recent phenomenon that was popularized by John Kennedy during the 1960 Presidential Race.

    Prior to Primaries the selection process for various candidates was done by party pols in smoke filled rooms. With open and closed primaries it has been claimed that the selection process has opened up and shed light into dark corners outing inferior, dishonest, corruptable candidates. I question that assertion; if one looks back in history we have had our share of fine Candidates and corrupt ones just like it is today. So what has changed?

    Well, it is extremely expensive. That is why Mr. Moran jumped out into an early lead for he had over 2 million dollars in his war chest, refusing to donate over the years to other Republican candidates in more contested areas. Whereas Mr. Tiahrt had helped other candidates in the state to the tune of over 1 million dollars.

    Also Primaries make the campaign long and arduous which leads to voter fatigue and cynicism. It does however, many times show the cracks and foibiles of the candidates, which for the most part is a good thing. Small mistakes are being made in this Primary and the knowledgeable party faithful are noticing them.

    For example; In my opinion, Mr. Tiahrt announced his candidacy late, well after Mr. Moran, which put Tiahrt in a hole from which he has now climbed out of. In regards to Mr. Moran, he polishes the apple but does not carry the water like Mr. Tiahrt. For example, Mr. Moran takes credit for being a strong advocate for the right to bear arms but it is Tiahrt who first introduced concealed and carry, got the Tiahrt Ammendments passed through Congress protecting gun manufactures, undercover police and trace evidence.

    In Primaries, traditionally voter turnout is 50% or below. If we assume that each party is of equal strength that means that if I want to win the Primary and the Party Nomination I have to get the majority or 13% of my party’s 25% share of the electorate. I don’t need 51% of the electorate just 13% of my Party’s faithful! That is what Mr. Tiahrt is successfully doing…he is building a large, statewide, loyal following that dwarfs Mr. Moran’s campaign machine. He is repeating the 1992, miracle when he knocked out veteran incumbent Democrat Dan Glickman.

    If you question my assertion look for campaign turn-out at parades and events. Listen to the talk of Republican voters and members in the two’s campaign. Mr. Tiahrt generates a fierce fierce loyalty. Why? Because he is the first to arrive and the last to leave…he takes the time to listen and is genuinely interested in what people are saying. Just watch him at an event.

    If you watch Mr. Moran’s campaign it is built on a large paid campaign staff that is very professional but doesn’t have “feeling.” Remember, an organization reflects its’ leader. A party activist from Lakin, Kansas pointed out to me that Mr. Moran always shows up but is never there…people like him but don’t seem to get to know him like they do with Tiahrt.

    Tiahrt wins in a walk!

    Posted by jdn1947 | July 1, 2010, 7:30 am
  3. Some thoughts- didn’t the USA Today Poll actually start polling the day they announced that Palin endorsement? Second, those of us who read the blogs also know the straw poll in Olathe included those the Tiahrt campaign bussed in.

    Oh and I got a call from a Tiahrt poll, talk about push poll!

    I am really starting to think the Tiahrt campaign is really that delusional.

    Posted by kansas4ever | July 1, 2010, 8:41 am
  4. It was right after the endorsement, my mistake. It’s been changed.

    Posted by Sean Wardwell | July 1, 2010, 9:16 am
  5. So you are telling me Mr. Tiahrt’s campaign commissioned an internal poll, discovered results dramatically different than 2 other recent polls, and then leaked these results compromising their own position on not commenting on polls.

    And all of this happens, luckily enough, on the final day of the reporting period and they send e-mails asking for more support? (Yes I did receive my e-mail.)

    I would say Mr. Tiahrt is getting rather desperate for support!

    Posted by newtopolitics | July 1, 2010, 3:53 pm

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