If there was ever a time to start taking Tracey Mann seriously, this is it.
Survey USA released new polling numbers in the Kansas 1st District Wednesday that has Tracey Mann surging to a statistical dead heat with Jim Barnett and Tim Huelskamp. Barnett took 23 percent of the poll with Mann coming in second at 20 percent. Huelskamp came in third with 18 percent, and Wasinger has 11 percent. Undecideds are at a lower than expected 16 percent.
With a margin of error of 4.6 percent, this places Barnett, Mann and Huelskamp in a three-way dance for the GOP nomination, with five weeks remaining until the primary. However, Mann has managed to shock many observers who had relegated him to a second-tier candidate. The previous Survey USA poll in February had Barnett at 23 percent, which remained unchanged. Huelskamp rose two points from 16 percent to 18 percent.
Mann, however, was at a mere 4 percent in the last poll. He shot up 16 points. As Survey USA is the only company doing scientific polling in the Big First, and no other numbers to compare it with, this should put campaigns on notice that Mann is indeed a player.
The crosstabs tell an interesting story. With self-identified conservatives, Barnett, Mann and Huelskamp each have a near-equal slice of the pie. Huelskamp polls at 22 percent in this block, with Barnett and Mann taking 21 percent. Self-identified liberals, on the other hand, are flocking to Barnett. He stands at 31 percent in that block, with Huelskamp and Mann taking 10 and 7 percent, respectively.
In fact, among Tea Party supporters, gun owners and pro-life voters, Barnett, Huelskamp and Mann are all pretty much even. Only Barnett can claim a lead among regular church goers and those earning more than $50,000 year.
All polling information can be viewed here. The methodology, according to Survey USA is, “1,500 Kansas adults 06/18/10 through 06/21/10. Of them, 1,301 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 475 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the August 2010 Republican Primary.”