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Mann up huge in Survey USA poll

If there was ever a time to start taking Tracey Mann seriously, this is it.

Survey USA released new polling numbers in the Kansas 1st District Wednesday that has Tracey Mann surging to a statistical dead heat with Jim Barnett and Tim Huelskamp. Barnett took 23 percent of the poll with Mann coming in second at 20 percent. Huelskamp came in third with 18 percent, and Wasinger has 11 percent. Undecideds are at a lower than expected 16 percent.

With a margin of error of 4.6 percent, this places Barnett, Mann and Huelskamp in a three-way dance for the GOP nomination, with five weeks remaining until the primary. However, Mann has managed to shock many observers who had relegated him to a second-tier candidate. The previous Survey USA poll in February had Barnett at 23 percent, which remained unchanged. Huelskamp rose two points from 16 percent to 18 percent.

Mann, however, was at a mere 4 percent in the last poll. He shot up 16 points. As Survey USA is the only company doing scientific polling in the Big First, and no other numbers to compare it with, this should put campaigns on notice that Mann is indeed a player.

The crosstabs tell an interesting story.  With self-identified conservatives, Barnett, Mann and Huelskamp each have a near-equal slice of the pie. Huelskamp polls at 22 percent in this block, with Barnett and Mann taking 21 percent. Self-identified liberals, on the other hand, are flocking to Barnett. He stands at 31 percent in that block, with Huelskamp and Mann taking 10 and 7 percent, respectively.

In fact, among Tea Party supporters, gun owners and pro-life voters, Barnett, Huelskamp and Mann are all pretty much even. Only Barnett can claim a lead among regular church goers and those earning more than $50,000  year.

All polling information can be viewed here. The methodology, according to Survey USA is, “1,500 Kansas adults 06/18/10 through 06/21/10. Of them, 1,301 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 475 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the August 2010 Republican Primary.”

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Discussion

3 thoughts on “Mann up huge in Survey USA poll

  1. Impressive showing for Mann, but it came after dropping more than $100k on 7 mail pieces and well over $100k on tv ads. Anyone who can do basic math can figure out that Mann is self-financing at this point, it’s just a question of how much.

    Poll is really bad news for Barnett and Huelskamp, who have heavily spent on tv only to see no change for Barnett and only +2 for Huelskamp.

    Wasinger hasn’t spent a dime on paid media, at least from what I’ve seen, and went up more then Huelskamp and Barnett combined.

    Posted by kspolitico | June 23, 2010, 7:05 pm
  2. If I am correct, Mann had enough cash on hand to pay for said mail pieces and the tv ads, so if you can basic math, he technically could afford it.

    When it comes to self-financing, how come you don’t raise questions about Barnett doing so and being first in the poll, I sense a little bias.

    Wasinger….I bet his camp is feeling down in the dumps being 2 points ahead of Boldra. He spends most of his money on robo calls for “Coffee with Rob” and his lack of paid media really shows in the poll.

    Surprisingly, which is the moral of the original post, is that Mann jumped 16 points (which is pretty impressive no matter what) and the minimal movement of the other candidates.

    Posted by kansas01 | June 24, 2010, 3:45 am
  3. I’m shocked anyone calling themselves conservatives would be in Barnett’s camp. I think the liberal numbers supporting him are reflective of his stance. Hopefully people do some research before they vote.
    I’ve met Wasinger three times, Huelskamp twice and Mann once. I would honestly be comfortable with any of them in office and I honestly don’t know who I’m going to vote for. Each has positives in their favor.
    I’m not surprised Mann has jumped in the polls, especially if he is out talking to people. Very genuine and personable. But again, I like those three and don’t know who to root for.
    On the other hand, I’m actively opposed to Barnett, who couldn’t seem to find his way off of I-35 and I-70 when he ran for governor.
    And I’m sure Boldra is a nice lady, but she is so far back in so many categories I’m wondering why she is still in the race.

    Posted by backroadsnewsroom | June 24, 2010, 2:23 pm

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