The Moran campaign released a new poll from Public Opinion Strategies that has Moran stomping Tiahrt by 27 points. Normally, this would be really impressive, given the acrimonious nature of the race so far. However, there’s one glitch in the system.
The Moran campaign commissioned the poll. Self-commissioned polls showing monster numbers doesn’t lend itself to impartiality – especially when it spouts prose like:
Congressman Jerry Moran has the consistent conservative message to carry him to a victory on Election Day. Momentum and support has been building behind Moran. Tiahrt, who suffers from a significant deficit of both ballot and fundraising support, can be expected to run a negative, desperate campaign.
Interesting statement, given that Tiahrt took in more in 2010’s 1st fundraising quarter than Moran, even though Moran still has a hefty advantage in cash-on-hand. I don’t think you can really say Tiahrt lacks ballot and fundraising support though. He’s picked up some nice endorsements, is obviously in it to win and has been all over the place trying to get Moran into a debate that he needs, and Moran doesn’t.
What’s also interesting is this statement:
The Moran campaign’s decision to do early advertising has paid off. Congressman Jerry Moran enjoys substantially higher favorables than his opponent, Congressman Todd Tiahrt.
Not so fast there Jerry. Rasmussen, as we reported a few days ago, has Moran and Tiahrt’s “Very Favorable” at exactly the same percentage in a poll almost as recent – 32 percent. The differences are in the “Very Unfavorable” ratings, where Tiahrt has a 10 point deficit against Moran at 16 percent. Moran is at 6 percent.
As far as who is more Negative, there’s this statement from the poll:
Congressman Tiahrt is perceived to be running the more negative campaign. By a ratio of two-to-one, Republican primary voters say Tiahrt, not Moran, is running the more negative campaign.
Let’s just say both campaigns haven’t exactly been bearing olive branches. Tiahrt brings an in-your-face, attack dog directness, while Moran can come off as an aloof, disinterested campaigner with an air of entitlement. Both bring their own special blend of negative to the table. Nobody’s hands are clean.
Finally, there’s this gem:
Congressman Moran is the consistent conservative candidate who will win on Election Day. The campaign’s message touting Moran’s votes against every bailout, every stimulus, and President Obama’s health care plan has won Moran the support of conservatives and those who are favorable to the swelling Tea Party movement. Moran currently leads 51%-33% among the 57% of the Republican primary electorate who are favorable to the Tea Party movement.
If I’m not mistaken, Tiahrt got the Tea Party Express endorsement. Nice attempt though.
Update from Moran Communication Director Dan Conston:
“Regardless of what you believe of the commonsense analysis, the numbers very plainly show a considerable shift and commanding lead for Jerry Moran.”
(Editing note: This post isn’t meant to imply that Moran’s poll was automatically biased because it was commissioned. Nevertheless, I feel there is a distinction to be made between a poll commissioned by a campaign and a poll by an independent third party. The effect of that distinction, whatever it may or may not be, I leave to the reader to interpret without suggestion or further comment. Also, in the interests of accuracy, Tiahrt was endorsed by the Tea Party Express. The post was changed to reflect that. All that being said, I stand by the post I wrote.)